| 杨阳,陈松,王磊,刘虹伶,陶道波,雷应华,杨超,刘旭.基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术的柑橘木虱适生区预测[J].中国南方果树,2026,55(2): |
| 基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术的柑橘木虱适生区预测 |
| Prediction of suitable habitats of Diaphorina citri based on MaxEnt model and GIS technology |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-25 修订日期：2025-06-22 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 柑橘木虱 黄龙病 MaxEnt模型 GIS技术 适生区 |
| 英文关键词:Diaphorina citri HuangLongBing MaxEnt model GIS technology distribution area |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系四川水果创新团队（SCCXTD-2024-4） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目 的】柑橘木虱是传播柑橘黄龙病最重要的媒介昆虫,给四川省的柑橘产业带来了严重的威胁,对于不同环境条件下柑橘木虱适生范围的预测,有利于掌握该物种对环境变化的响应机制,进而对其进行有效防控。【方法】本研究基于柑橘木虱在我国历史和现在的出现点为数据基础,利用MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS技术和SPSS等专业软件,结合气象和海拔等环境因子建立柑橘木虱生态位模型,模拟预测柑橘木虱在四川省的适生区域,明确影响柑橘木虱迁飞和扩散的关键环境变量。【结果】最干月份降水量、最冷月最低温度和温度季节性变动系数是最关键的环境变量,海拔作为单一变量对柑橘木虱分布的影响有限。模型预测显示柑橘木虱在四川省的高适生区面积约为5.9万km2,中适生区面积约为5.6万km2,低适生区面积约为4.7万km2,其中高适生区主要分布在四川省东部的内江市、资阳市和遂宁市；川东北部的广安市全境、南充市、达州市大部分地区和巴中市少量地区；川东南部的宜宾市和泸州市绝大部分地区；另外还在金沙江流域、攀西地区和乐山市东部有少量分布。【结论】通过精度验证证明本研究所建立的预测模型具有高度准确性和可靠性,可以为柑橘木虱在四川省的迁飞提供预警和防控数据,从而为阻截柑橘黄龙病进入成都平原和川东北等柑橘核心产区提供理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】Diaphorina citri is the most important vector of citrus greening disease, which poses a serious threat to the citrus industry in Sichuan Province. The prediction of the habitat range of D. citri under different environmental conditions is conducive to understanding the response mechanism of this species to environmental change, and then effective prevention and control of this species. 【Method】 Based on the data of the historical and present emergence of D. citri in our country, this study used the MaxEnt model, ArcGIS technology and SPSS, combined with environmental factors such as meteorological and altitude to establish the ecological spot model of D. citri, simulated and predicted the suitable areas of D. citri in Sichuan Province. Identify key environmental variables affecting the migration and spread of D. citri. 【Results】 Precipitation in driest month, minimum temperature in coldest month and seasonal temperature variation coefficient were the most critical environmental variables, and elevation as a single variable had limited effect on the distribution of D. citri. The whole of Guang "an City, most of Nanchong City, Dazhou City and a small number of Bazhong City in the northeast of Sichuan; Most of Yibin City and Luzhou City in southeastern Sichuan; In addition, there are also a small number of distribution in the Jinsha River basin, Panxi area and the east of Leshan City . 【Conclusion】 The accuracy verification proves that the prediction model established in this study is highly accurate and reliable, which can provide early warning and control data for the migration of D. citri in Sichuan Province, and provide a theoretical basis for preventing citrus yellow dragon disease from entering the Chengdu Plain and northeast Sichuan and other core citrus producing areas. |
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