| 黄伟康,秦伟红,贾静静,吉训聪,林珠凤,冯学杰,冯青.基于MaxEnt模型预测榴莲在中国适生区[J].中国南方果树,2025,54(4): |
| 基于MaxEnt模型预测榴莲在中国适生区 |
| Prediction of suitable growth areas for Durio zibethinus Murr. in China based on the MaxEnt model |
| 投稿时间：2024-07-18 修订日期：2024-10-16 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 榴莲，MaxEnt模型，适生区，气候因子 |
| 英文关键词:Durio zibethinus Murr., MaxEnt model, Suitable areas, Climate factors |
| 基金项目:2022年院本级科研-揭榜挂帅项目(HAAS2022JBGS01),海南省财政科技计划资助(FW20230002). * |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 515 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 榴莲Durio zibethinus Murr.是具有重要经济价值的热带果树。但随着国产榴莲的成功上市，打破我国榴莲全依赖进口的格局，榴莲成为农业关注的焦点。我国对榴莲的研究处于刚起步状态，因此非常有必要研究榴莲在我国的适生区分布及其主要限制环境因子，为榴莲的试种与扩种提供理论依据。本文利用MaxEnt模型对榴莲在我国的潜在适生区进行预测，通过分布点位去自相关、气候因子筛选优化模型，使用刀切法及环境变量响应曲线对影响榴莲分布的气候因子进行评估，确定其适生区。结果表明，在我国影响榴莲分布主要气候因子为温度季节性变动系数（bio4），贡献率高达47.67%，其次为年降水（bio12），贡献率为19.44%，影响最小的环境变量为最热季降水量（bio18），贡献率仅为3.68%。我国99.54%地区均不适宜种植榴莲；0.40%地区低度适合榴莲生长，主要分布海南岛的中部地区、福建省沿海一带、台湾岛东面沿海地区，累计面积3.8万 km2；0.06%地区中度适合榴莲生长，主要分布在海南岛南部地区的三亚市、陵水县、乐东县、保亭县，累计面积0.5万 km2；仅0.001%地区高度适合榴莲生长，主要分布在海南部分岛屿，面积仅0.01万 km2。通过MaxEnt模型研究影响榴莲生长的最主要的环境因子为温度季节性变动系数，榴莲中度适生区域主要在海南岛南部地区。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Durio zibethinus Murr. is an economically important tropical fruit. With the domestic durian fruit appears on market, it is successfully breaking the pattern of all dependence on imports, and durian has attracted a lot of attention among agricultural industry. The research on durian in China is in the exploratory stage. It is very necessary to study the suitable distribution of durian in China and its main limiting environmental factors, so as to provide theoretical basis for the trial and expansion of durian.In this paper, we use MaxEnt model to forecast the potential suitable survival area of durian in our country, and optimize the model by removing auto-correlation of distribution points and screening climatic factors, evaluate the climatic factors which are affecting the distribution of durian by means of the Knife-cut method and the response curve of environmental variables, hence, the suitable area was determined. The results shows: (1)the main climatic factor affecting durian distribution in our country was the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (bio4), which contributed 47.67%, followed by the annual precipitation (bio12), which contributed 19.44%, the contribution of precipitation in the hottest season (bio18) was only 3.68%; (2)Durian is not suitable for planting in 99.54% of the areas in our country; (3)and 0.40% of the areas are suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in the central area of Hainan Island, the coastal area of Fujian province and the eastern coastal area of Taiwan Island, the total area was 38,000 km2; (4) and 0.06% of the area was moderately suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in Sanya, Lingshui, Ledong and Baoting areas, with a total area of 5,000 km2; (5)Only 0.001% of the area is suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in some islands of Hainan, the area is only 100 km2. The main environmental factor affecting the growth of Durio zibethinus Murr. according to the MaxEnt Model is the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature. Durian is mainly suitable for moderate growth in the southern region of Hainan Island. |
| 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
