| 邹乐怡.中国水果价格下行的系统成因与政策建议[J].中国果业信息,2025,42(12): |
| 中国水果价格下行的系统成因与政策建议 |
| Systematic Causes of China's Fruit Price Decline and Policy Recommendations |
| 投稿时间：2025-10-10 修订日期：2025-10-21 |
| DOI：10.13938/j.issn.1007-1431.X20250452 |
| 中文关键词: 水果市场；供给洪峰；产能调控；“保险+期货”；可持续发展 |
| 英文关键词:Fruit market; Supply surge; Production capacity regulation; ‘Insurance plus futures’; Sustainable development |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 近年来中国水果价格呈普遍且持续下行态势，该现象源于“供给洪峰、消费疲软、进口冲击”三重叠加效应，叠加流通端成本下降共同作用。本文基于“供给-需求-贸易-流通”四维分析框架，结合农业农村部监测数据、新闻、行业报告及学术文献，运用数据对比、逻辑推演及案例分析等方法，系统剖析价格下行的驱动因素，并针对性地提出政策建议。预计未来几年水果市场价格中枢仍将低位运行，需通过建立产能预警系统、强化冷链收储、推广“保险+期货”、推动品种差异化等，实现水果产业稳定可持续发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Fruit prices in China exhibited a widespread and sustained downward trend in recent years. This phenomenon stemmed from the combined effects of three overlapping factors: a supply glut, sluggish consumption, and import pressure, compounded by reduced distribution costs. This paper employs a four-dimensional analytical framework encompassing supply, demand, trade, and distribution. Drawing upon monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, news reports, industry studies, and academic literature, it systematically dissects the drivers of price decline through data comparison, logical deduction, and case analysis. Targeted policy recommendations are subsequently proposed. It is anticipated that fruit market prices will remain at low levels in the coming years. Achieving stable and sustainable development in the fruit industry requires establishing a production capacity early-warning system, strengthening cold chain storage and reserves, promoting the ‘insurance plus futures’ model, and advancing varietal differentiation. |
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